Chandra Mohan Choudhary
Almost one and half-years before the completion of the term of Prime Minister K P Oli’s government, the President of Nepal has recommended the dissolution of the Parliament on May 22, 2021 pushing the country into a state of political turmoil, right in the middle of a pandemic which could result in serious socio-economic consequences. A mid-term election is now scheduled to be held in November 2021. Earlier too, Mr. Oli had dissolved the House but the Supreme Court of Nepal intervened and with the Court’s decision to recognize individual parties constituting the Communist coalition, Mr. Oli made a desperate attempt to recapture power. Subsequently, the Oli government lost the confidence vote in Parliament and was asked to continue in the interim till required support could be gathered by any faction to lead the Country. With the political drama that has been unfolding in Nepal, it is clear that there is no provision in the constitution on the early dissolution of the Parliament and the controversial move of Mr. Oli is widely considered as a constitutional coup by the Prime Minister himself.
Recent Developments in Nepal:
China’s Ambassador to Nepal, Ms. Hou Yanqi tried to replicate her counterpart in Pakistan by dabbling in Nepalese domestic politics. She held various meetings with fractions of the Nepal Communist Party, notably: Mr. Madhav Nepal, Mr. Pushpa K Dahal alias ‘Prachanda’ and Mr. Oli himself in a bid to ensure that he remains the PM and to avert a split in the party. The standing committee meeting of Nepal’s ruling party was cancelled by Mr. Oli nine times. He avoided convening a meet since he was sure his party members would pass a resolution against him and in support of his rival, Prachanda. Again, the arrival of a senior delegation of the Communist Party of China after the dissolution of Parliament was glaring evidence of the extent to which China is willing to go to keep the Nepalese leadership on its side. The delegation was led by the Vice-Minister for International Department of the Communist Party of China Mr. Gao Jeju and the delegation held talks with the President, the Prime Minister and several fractions of the Nepal Communist Party. However, not much progress could be made and eventually a split of the party was imminent.
. To most analysts and even the common people of Nepal, the nature of influence and control China was attempting to exercise on the polity of the nation was an issue worthy of caution.
Hence, amidst this environment of political uncertainty, it is important to examine several decisions taken in the tenure of the outgoing Prime Minister on some of the highly debated issues vis-à-vis the country’s two powerful neighbours i.e. India and China to gain an understanding of the direction in which Nepal’s foreign policy is driven.
China’s Belt and Debt-trap Initiative
Under its much-hyped Belt and Road initiative (BRI), China began work to build an extension to the world’s highest rail link under its Belt and Road initiative, the Qinghai-Tibet Railway (Lhasa to Xigaze) in Tibet Autonomous Region bordering India, Nepal and Bhutan aiming to reduce Nepal’s energy dependence on India as well as to enable the country to import supplies from Beijing. Nepalese PM K P Oli, is known to have a strategic role in concluding many important agreements with China including connectivity. Further, it is interesting to note that that the Chinese commitment to these rail projects is from the perspective of feasibility studies and technical support only. As per current Chinese plans, this proposed rail line will be brought nearer to the Nepal border within the Tibet region. But there is no confirmation if and how this rail line will be extended within Nepal linking Kathmandu with Pokhara and Lumbini. Nepal for obvious reasons is more interested in linking its cities but that seems to be getting perennially delayed.
In contrast, it is interesting to highlight that India not only completed the work on its first passenger railway line between India and Nepal from Jaynagar to Kurtha via Janakpur but also finalized operating procedures for commencement of train services between these junctions within Nepal. Further, India also completed the Motihari-Amlekhganj petroleum pipeline and now plans to expand this pipeline to Chitwan. Also, a new pipeline is being established to connect Siliguri to Jhapa in Nepal as part of India’s commitments to improve Nepal’s infrastructure. While numerous Chinese promises under BRI remain largely on paper, as traditional neighbours and friends since ages, India has been making consistent efforts to achieve success on the ground.
Also, it is believed that the K P Oli government instructed the Nepal Rastra Bank to mint coins with the inclusion of Kalapani area, a scheme which was later thwarted from implementation. It was also alleged that the government included a chapter on the campaign to reclaim disputed territory with India in its Nepali-language book.Subsequently, this measure too of distribution of the Self Study Material on Nepal’s Territory and Border to high school students was duly halted.
Admittedly, the India-Nepal border was delineated by the Sugauli Treaty in the year, 1816. The conflicting territorial claims that have emerged, center on the source of the River Kali. Nepal argues that the river originates from a stream at Limpiyadhura, north-west of Lipu Lekh. Thus, Kalapani, Limpiyadhura and Lipu Lekh fall to the east of the river and are part of Nepal. India’s position is that the Kali originates in springs well below the pass, and that while the Treaty does not demarcate the area north of these springs, also administrative and revenue records going back to the nineteenth century show that Kalapani was on the Indian side. India has controlled this territory for years and also built other infrastructure before, besides conducting its administration and deploying military forces up to the border pass with China. In a 2015 statement, China also recognised India’s sovereignty by agreeing to expand trade through the Lipulekh pass.
Reviewing Gorkha’s Recruitment
Gorkha soldiers from Nepal have been an integral part of the Indian Army for many years now. Recently, Nepal vowed to review the tri-lateral arrangement of 1947 between Independent India, Britain and Nepal which allows its citizens to be enlisted in the Indian/British army. While the UK has gradually downsized the Gorkha regiments over the years, in India the Gorkhas have been having a significant presence and are immensely respected for their valour and courage. Currently, there are around 40,000 soldiers serving in the 7 Gorkha regiments of the Indian Army. In this context, it was surprising to see, Nepal’s Foreign Minister Pradeep Gurkha term the recruitment a legacy of the past and refer to some provisions as questionable.
Game of Competitive Nationalism & Lord Rama Controversy
In a bid to outrun his party co-chair and political rival, Mr. Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Mr. Oli also played a game of competitive nationalism. In his quest to prove his nationalistic credentials, to woo China and to distract the people of Nepal from his failings, the communist Prime Minister Mr. Oli also played the religious-cultural card by claiming that the real Ayodhya is in Nepal and Lord Rama is Nepali and not Indian and thus, disputed the Hindu mythology that is popularly referred to in India. This was done by Oli fully aware of the impact it would have on its neighbor India which has a significant Hindu population and on the ruling political dispensation which resonates emotionally with the issue.
A move to curb Indian Media
Admittedly, with common languages, cultural linkages and massive movement and marriages between its people, Indian channels have a huge viewership in Nepal. Recently, a news report claimed that foreign news channels may lose transmission rights in Nepal if they do not beam ad free content. This basically meant that foreign TV channels would have to air content without running commercials which makes the entire enterprise economically very unviable. Nepal’s Ministry of Information and Broadcasting eventually had to comment that the decision isn’t confirmed and the matter is still under consultation. If implemented, the same would be highly detrimental to Nepal’s interests. In this war of perception, the Oli government had at one time even tried to curb the so-called disinformation being spread by the Indian media. The Indian media had raised the issues of how Mr. Oli used territorial nationalism to fix the country’s map, how he overplayed the China card against India, how he depended heavily on China to survive an intra party-rebellion and how he accused his party colleagues of conspiring with a foreign power in an indirect reference to India. These definitely had irked Mr Oli who governed the reins of power at that time in Nepal and attempted to shrug these reports as misinformation.
Idea of Imposing a Health Emergency
In the midst of the pandemic when different variants began to emerge of the Wuhan Virus, Mr. Oli went on to remark that the (corona) virus from India looks more lethal than Chinese and Italian one, which was once again a controversial and politically motivated statement for a country like India who had not only granted testing kits but also sent vaccines and other medicines to Nepal when other countries were busy hoarding vaccines for themselves. Meanwhile, Mr. Oli floated the idea of declaring a health emergency in Nepal and wished that troops be deployed on the ground to deal with the virus. Many political observers believe this was his way to divert attention from the impending health concerns of the citizens and save himself from the growing political criticism. The President of Nepal and the Nepalese Army, however, did not support this motion while the country was in the midst of both a political crisis and a major global pandemic.
Height of the Mount Everest
In the past, Nepal had declined offers of help in measuring the highest peak on earth from many countries, including India, Australia and UK, contending that it was capable of undertaking the exercise on its own. Nepal held that conducting the exercise on its own would demonstrate to the world its technical prowess and would be a ‘coming into one’s own’ sort of initiative. However, this didn’t deter China, which played its favourite role of a bully and started leaning on Nepal to share credit for the exercise. This was one of the most important items on the agenda during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Nepal. The two sides eventually issued a joint statement at the end of the visit which read:
Recognizing that Mount Sagarmatha /Zhumulangma is an eternal symbol of the friendship between Nepal and China, the two sides will promote cooperation in different fields, including addressing climate change and protecting the environment. They will jointly announce the height of Mount Sagarmatha/Zhumulangma and conduct scientific researches.
This buckling under pressure from Xi Jinping by Oli however, generated a lot of resentment among politicians, including those from his own party, as well as bureaucrats, academia, intelligentsia and the masses in Nepal. This resentment has often led to search for truth as to why a supposedly strong leader like Oli would succumb to Chinese pressure in such apparent terms. Oli, on the other hand is known to have indicted India to live as per its motto of Satyamev Jayate or Truth Prevails. Typically, Mr. Oli’s ultra-nationalist actions and remarks against India could be seen for the following prisms: 1), highly unstable domestic politics/compulsions 2), under Chinese pressure 3), large scale people’s protests on streets demanding financial transparency.
Conclusion
Based on the above factors, it is easier to put in perspective why China has been continuously mediating between different political factions of Nepal to keep Mr. Oli in power. China played puppet with Mr. Oli by encouraging him to amend its map to claim Indian land, to ban private Indian channels, to declare Lord Rama Nepali, to shun American aid etc. Basically, China pushed Mr. Oli on path of ultra-nationalism which he readily followed owing to his own emergence as a leader on that account but this ultimately resulted in him losing the support of his voters and his party. It not only put pressure on critical reporting in the Nepali media but also promoted the authoritarian governance model of China’s Communist Party in Nepal.
A section of experts attributed Mr. Oli’s comments to Nepal’s internal power struggle wherein he tried hard to consolidate his position by displaying nationalism. To many Nepali citizens this sort of commentary reflects a sad trajectory of a leader putting his personal interest above the country. It almost seems that he thought of only one way to survive and that was to blame India for all the real/imagined problems of Nepal. The people of the country did trust Mr. Oli to lead a rainbow coalition of parties. Unfortunately, at the end of almost four years, the country is back to where it was. Also, Mr. Oli’s poor pandemic response has angered a large section of Nepal’s youth. His anti-India rhetoric has split the civil society and his surrender to China and its embassy officials has disappointed many who he would call his ted over unresolved differences and the `trust deficit` amongst different political parties and its leaders, prolonged political instabilroihty and widespread corruption, which poses a serious threat to the peace and development of the landlocked nation. It is apparent that there is an earnest desire among the people of Nepal that their political leaders come to a consensus and take the country forward at this hour of crisis, at this moment of a global pandemic. Unstable democracies and political transitions are an easy target for power driven countries like China who sustain purely on self interest and unquestioned domination. India kept patience during most of Mr. Oli’s provocative moves, a virtue though sometimes mistaken as weakness is essentially reflective of the resolute faith that the country has over democratic principles, international order and mutual respect between sovereigns. (Author is a Senior Journalist of Nepal )
